Modeling damage accumulation during ground-motion sequences for portfolio seismic loss assessments

Conventional earthquake risk assessments use fragility and vulnerability models that are based on seismic demands from individual (mainshock) ground motions, implicitly assume a structure is intact before an hits. This study develops suite of more realistic state-dependent for wide range building taxonomies, leveraging state-of-the-art methods to account dynamic damage accumulation in structures due multiple events (i.e., ground-motion sequences). Models developed 561 classes structural types) the Global Earthquake Model’s global database models. Four 2010–2012 Canterbury sequence earthquakes then used demonstrate application within portfolio loss assessment, capturing time-dependent nature calculations. The results this indicate accounting across series can significantly increase expected ratios compared conventional mainshock-only analysis. work help analysts develop apply quantifying potential impact portfolio-scale assessments.